2023 General Elections, Too Close To Call, Too Complex To Predict – Usman Ayegba | GOVERNMEND

I have maintained a dignified silence on 2023 general elections particularly the Presidential Component of it for some months now but often times, folks kept asking me salient questions like, “Who do you think will win this coming election among the candidates of APC, PDP and LP?”. In my mind of mind, I know that our elections have not got that point where we can beat our chest and predict the outcomes outrightly. The only bets that have often worked are (a.) the incumbency factor; (b.) the highest bidders with humongous financial war chest to buy votes of humongously poor voters; and (c.) those with audacious capacity to induce fear, cause violence and inflict pain or even death where necessary and possible.

Majority of politicians in Nigeria today would not have come near the corridor of power if these factors are (or were) not within their reach to dispense. These have featured in our previous elections and would continue to feature in our present and maybe, future elections except of course, magic happens.

Beyond these bets, anyone who give a straight answer on who is going to win next week presidential elwction in Nigeria is just playing to the gallery! Sometimes, we allow emotions to overtake our sense of objectivity and continue to wallow in the hubris of self-fulfilling prophecy of self or party-candidate-affiliation glorification. I say this because next week presidential election would be different from the previous ones this country has ever conducted. This is due to several interplays at work that even someone with the gift of clairvoyance cannot tell which party and candidate would emerge victorious. Only time and chances can!

What provoked this article is the unending questions folks have been asking, the last of them, from a former secondary school classmate who asked me saying, “Yes I remember, this is your field, who do you think will win this election?”. My responses were sharp and direct. I reproduce them hereunder (with minor modifications):

This election would be one of fiercely contested in Nigeria’s history. No one can say with certainty who will emerge victorious. Centris paribus, I have a serious doubt if we are going to have a clear winner at the first ballot. This is so given the power dynamics that are at play currently. I foresee that a clear winner may not emerge at the first ballot. We may go for a run-off where a winner would eventually emerge after hectic and frenzy horse-trading among the political gladiators.

However, this depends on a lot of factors. I will quickly mention few of them.

1. The rising popularity of Obi-Datti-Labour Movement by the young folks and certain unseen forces at the background: Given the type of street credibility greeting the Obi Movement in this election especially by the Nigerian young folks, it is not going to be a business as usual for both the APC and PDP. In fact, the fear of Obi is now the beginning of wisdom and no one better express such fear than Mr. Festus Keyamo, the spokesperson to the APC Presidential Campaign Council (PCC) and current Minister of Labour and Productivity, who confessed recently that they (in APC) initially under-estimated Obi Movement that has now turned out to be their greatest nightmare. Therefore, save the 1979 presidential election where Awolowo’s UPN, Zik’s NPP and Shagari’s NPN, made it a 3-horse race, history of presidential election in Nigeria is suggestive of 2-horse race. This time around, it would either be a 3- or 4-horse race (if you add the Rabiu Musa Kwakwonso’s factor to those of Atiku, Tinubu and Obi). Certainly, Kwankwasiyya is going to be a force to look out for in Kano even though APC is the ruling party there.
2. The disconnect between media poll rating and the real vote cast: Media experts have told us that the fourth estate of the realm has the capacity to make a king out of a servant and vice versa, but, again, there is a huge gap between media/online votes and ballot box votes. There are questions to ask here. Are we going to see the number of youths vigorously campaigning for Obi Movement nay Atiku and Tinubu online and on the streets at the pooling units with their PVCs on the election day? Former VP Atiku Abubakar, the PDP candidate, is not new to this game. In fact, Turaki Adamawa has been in the threshold of election before many of us come to the full knowledge of what election is. Since 1999 his name has consistently feature in all Nigeria’s presidential elections making it a household. Do you dismiss such a man with a wave of hands or for the rave of the moment? Same with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the candidate of APC (and their running mates).

For APC, the chances may look slimmer but given the financial muscles of Tinubu and strings his supporters and those of his running can pull, they are not going to be easily pushed over. Incidentally, obvious failure of the APC-led federal government especially in the areas of insecurity, unemployment and currently, the scarcity of Naira occasioned by the currency redesign by the CBN as well as fuel scarcity followed with increase in pump price of PMS and food items, which Tinubu and APC PCC have accused Buhari’s administration and Abuja Cabals are deliberately orchestrating to dim their winning chances, have erected a hurdles for Tinubu and his supporters to cross. Despite these setbacks, the Emilokan chief and his team are not people to be under-estimated. Whoever think Tinubu would be a walkover should wake up from daydreaming.

3. Vote Buying: The weaponization of poverty in Nigeria by the elites make average Nigerian voters susceptible to financial inducement on the day of election by these very politicians that put them in the mess. Like Esau, many Nigerian voters would only be compelled by the urgent need to fill their stomachs on election day thereby not minding seeling their birthrights, their votes. The grave future implications would mean little or nothing to them at least momentarily. On the election day, I won’t be surprised seeing the same people facing all these sufferings selling their PVCs and votes to the highest bidders for peanuts. You will begin to wonder why on earth Nigeria is today the world poverty capital yet the most happiest people in the universe. We are indeed, SUFFERING AND SMILING people (thanks to late Fela). It is a paradox that has defies explanation from experts in pyschology and political science.
4. Ethno-religious and regional Factor: Average Nigerian may be shouting “merit, competence, integrity, capacity blah blah blah” but behind the shout, we defer to ethnic, religious and regional appeals in making choices of who govern us. Loyalty of average Nigerian voters is to their ethnic, religious and regional affiliations before the Nigerian Nation. Only a negligible fraction stand for the Right Thing To Be Done. Our politicians are quite aware of this fault lines and maximize them to the fullest. This explains why we excel with individual tasks but fail in collective assignment.

With thiw benefit of hindsight, Atiku will likely get bloc votes from Muslim areas and Fulani states in the Northeast (except, perhaps, Bornu) and to some extent, Northwest. Given that Christians would feel cheated of having their shot at presidency in the candidacy of APC (with a Muslim-Muslim ticket) after President Buhari, a Fulani Muslim would have spent 8-year tenure, majority of Christian voters in Northern Nigeria, Middle Belt and South may give sympathy votes to Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi, whom they believe will fill the gap of the unwritten agreement of having power alternate between North and South, and Christians and Muslims, in a multi-ethnic and multi-religious religious country like Nigeria where competition and mobilization across two dominant religious divides, Christianity and Islam, is rampant.

With APC losing in Osun State during the 2022 July Governorship election to a PDP candidate, Osun and Oyo may likely vote for Atiku (depending on the influence of their governors to sway the voters). South-South states of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Edo and Delta (BRACED) may likely be sharing their votes between PDP and LP except Rivers that is uncertain for now.

This does not mean that APC will fold its hands and allow things slide just like that. The party’s chance is brighter in states like Ondo, Ekiti, Ogun and Lagos. But in the face of unfolding realities, Ogun and Lagos may not be totally in the box. The influence of Vice President Yemi Osibanjo in Ogun who lost the party’s ticket during primary to Tinubu cannot be waved aside. If he choose to get his pound of flesh, be could pull some strings to the disadvantage of APC. Governor Dapo Abiodun may be for Tinubu during the day but another thing at night except if we are quick to forget undercurrents that led to Tinubu’s Eleyi/Emilokan outburst in Abeokuta sometimes in 2022 in the build up to the party’s primary. Obviously, Lagos would be a battle ground for Tinubu and Obi because majority of Igbo and christian populations in Lagos would likely vote for Labour party. The huge crowd that trooped out to the recent campaign of LP at the TBS has obviously sent a shockwave to the APC. It is a clear message that the battle has been brought to the doorstep of the maverick Lagos politician. This is perceived in APC circle as effrontery of the LP that must be halted. With the crowd of people at the LP campaign in Lagos, it amounts to dereliction for APC to go to bed over Lagos, the supposed comfort zone of Tinubu.

While Kano may be locked down for Kwankwoso and his party, the NNPP, and APC may take Bornu votes because of Shettima’s factor, the APC running mate.

5. Security factor: Security presence is a key factor to the success or otherwise of any election especially in Africa where election is seen as a do-or-die affair. Beyond the presence of security agents especially the police and other paramilitary bodies, the neutrality and professional conducts of officers and men would go along way to determine the outcomes of next Saturday’s poll and that of governorship and House of Assembly the following Saturday in March. With the high stakes, the police should be up and doing to boost the confidence of the voters that their lives and property would be save and not endangered otherwise, given the antecedents of politicians, atmosphere of fear would be created to dissuade voters from coming out to vote especially in their opponents’ strongholds.

All these make next week election a contest too close to call and too complex to predict the outcomes!

I wish Nigeria and Nigerians a peaceful elections!

Source: Usman Solomon Ayegba