According to the AFEX Wet Season Crop Production Report for 2023, the price of paddy rice is anticipated to increase by 32% in the 2023/2024 crop production year, coupled with a projected 3.6% growth in production output.
The report highlighted that stable rice production in 2023 was attributed to the absence of flooding, which contrasted with the significant losses suffered by farmers in 2022 when around 100,000 hectares of rice farms were affected by floods.
The absence of flooding in 2023, combined with reduced fertilizer prices, contributed to stable production.
The report noted a notable expansion in the land area under rice cultivation, driven by favorable market conditions.
Projections indicate a 3.6% increase in the production volume of paddy rice, reaching an estimated total yield of 8.3 million metric tonnes in 2023.
Regarding rice prices, the report pointed out that a decline in production due to the 2022 flooding and the ban on exports of paddy rice in India is expected to lead to a 32% increase in the price of the commodity.
Despite the projected increase in production by approximately 4%, the report anticipates a potential surge in the price of paddy rice.
The report also made projections on other agricultural commodities, including maize, sorghum, and cocoa.
It forecasted a 5% increase in the average price of maize, driven by a 6.9% increase in production due to high demand.
Sorghum prices were expected to rise by 20%, while cocoa prices were projected to increase by around 70% year-on-year.
Food prices, especially for rice, have been rising rapidly in Nigeria in recent years, contributing to an overall food inflation rate of 31.5%, according to the latest inflation report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Despite efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to boost rice production, prices have continued to surge, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency on agriculture in July, emphasising the need for synergy between the ministries of agriculture and water resources to ensure year-round farming through irrigation.
Source: Nairametrics